Volatility spikes on inflation data

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Published Date 1/12/2023

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Lower

Mortgage rates are moving lower today. The MBS market improved by +6 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced low volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were lighter than expected, 205K vs. est. of 215K. The more closely watched 4 week moving average dropped to 212.5K. Continuing Claims were 1.634M vs. est. of 1.705M.

Inflation: The December Headline CPI MOM decreased by -0.1% which is exactly what the market expected. YOY it increased by 6.5% which matched expectations and is down from November's pace of 7.1%. Core (ex food and energy) CPI was up 0.3% on a MOM basis which is higher/hotter/worse than November's pace of 0.2%. YOY, it was up 5.7% which was expected. While Goods inflation tumbled to its lowest since Feb 2021, Services inflation soared to its highest since Sept 1982. Real Wages dropped for the 21st month in a row.

The Fed: Today we hear from Harker, Bullard and Barkin

Treasury Sales: We have an important 30 year Treasury BOND auction at 1 pm ET

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning inflation data is giving rates support. Volatility is high as markets digest the data.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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