Three things that could impact rates this week

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Published Date 1/30/2023

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +33 bps last week. This was enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility last week.

This week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) The Fed, 2) Central Banks, and 3) Jobs.

1) The Fed: We will get the FOMC's Interest Rate Decision and Policy Statement on Wednesday. The markets largely expect a rate hike of only 25BPS but the door is open for more. The key is their message, if they keep hammering that the Fed's key interest rate will be in the "5s" before pausing, then we have one or two more 25BPS hikes. We will have a live presser with Fed Chair Powell right after their policy statement release.

2) Central Banks: Our Fed is not the only game in town. This week we will also get rate hikes out of the Bank of England (50BPS) and the ECB (50BPS).

3) Jobs: We have a ton of job and wage related data this week culminating in Big Jobs Friday. This week we get: Employment Cost Index, Jolts, ADP Payrolls, Challenger Job Cuts, Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, Unit Labor Costs, Average Hourly Earnings, Average Weekly Hours, Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, U6 Underemployment Rate and the Participation Rate.

This week's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets are treading water. Volatility is moderate to start but will spike on FOMC and labor data.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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