Poor manufacturing data counters overseas inflation worries

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Published Date 2/28/2023

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are nudging higher today. The MBS market improved by +19 bps yesterday. This may have been enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Housing: December YOY Case Shiller Home Price Index tanked from an appreciation rate of 6.8% in November down to only 4.6% in December. The FHFA Housing Price Index showed that home prices fell by -0.1% on a MOM basis in Dec after falling -0.1% in Nov.

Manufacturing: Chicago PMI continued the trend of very weak economic news with a contractionary reading of 43.6 in February vs. est. of 45.0. This makes the 6th straight month of below 50 readings in this index. The Feb Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index also tanked, dropping to -16 vs. est. of -5.

The Consumer: Consumer Confidence dropped in February from a downwardly revised 106 in January to 102.9.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are under mild pressure due to do overseas inflation data. Volatility has started slightly high but so far things are staying within a narrow trading range.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Wymac Capital, Inc.

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