Initial Weekly Jobless Claims continue to defy expectations

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Published Date 3/2/2023

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are edging higher today. The MBS market worsened by -35 bps yesterday. This was enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Higher

Domestic News:

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were lower than expected (190K vs. est. of 195K). The more closely watched 4 week moving average is very low at 193K. Continuing Claims were a smidge lower than expected, 1.655M vs. est. of 1.665M.

Manufacturing: 4th QTR Non Farm Productivity was revised the wrong direction. It originally came out at a strong 3.0% but has been revised downward to only 1.7%. The flip side to this is that 4th QTR Unit Labor Costs were revised upward from only 1.1% to 3.2.%.

The Fed: Today we hear from Waller.

Overseas News:

Eurozone: Core EU Inflation surged to a new record high of 5.6% vs. est. of 5.3%

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets took a double hit from Unit Labor Costs and EU inflation. Volatility has started high under all the market pressure.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Wymac Capital, Inc.

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