Consumer Price Index meets expectations but volatility remains high

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Published Date 3/14/2023

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving chaotically today. The MBS market improved by +24 bps yesterday. This may have been enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced extreme volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Inflation: February headline Consumer Prices (CPI) increased by 0.4% on a MOM basis and 6.00% on a YOY basis, both matched market expectations. Core (ex food and energy) was a smidge hotter on the MOM reading at 0.5% vs. est. of 0.4%. YOY, it matched expectations at 5.5%. Rent inflation was up 8.76% which is the highest on record. Shelter Inflation was up 8.10%, also a new record.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets are bouncing back from yesterday’s gains. Volatility has started extremely high with markets still operating under duress.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Wymac Capital, Inc.

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