Initial Weekly Jobless claims continue to beat expectations

___

Published Date 12/21/2023

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +12 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced low volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were lighter than expected, 205K versus estimates of 215K. The more closely watched 4 week moving average dropped to 212K. Continuing Claims moved from 1.866M to 1.865M so not much of a change.

Manufacturing: The December Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey continues to reinforce that we remain in a manufacturing recession by contracting -10.5 versus estimates of -3.0.

Crystal Ball: The November Leading Economic Indicators will hit at 10 pm ET.

GDP: The 3rd QTR GDP (third time its been released) was revised from 5.2% down to 4.9%.

Central Banks: We will get the Bank of Japan's meeting Minutes this afternoon.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Low

This morning markets started under some mild pressure but have already recovered. Volatility started a little higher on the morning data but has already seemed to settle as markets wait for inflation news tomorrow.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.