Initial Weekly Jobless Claims lower than expected

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Published Date 1/18/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market worsened by -24 bps yesterday. This may have been enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Housing: December Housing Starts were higher than expected with an annualized pace of 1.460M units versus estimates of 1.426M. Building Permits were the same story with 1.495M versus estimates of 1.480M.

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims continue to shock and amaze economists with their ultra low levels. This time around they were only 187K versus estimates of 207K. This dropped the more closely watched 4 week moving average down to 203K. Continuing Claims remain stubbornly above 1.8M.

Manufacturing: The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index tanked by -10.6 and Dec was revised lower to -12.8.

The Fed: We will hear from Atlanta Fed President Bostic today.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are trading within a narrow channel. Volatility has started at moderate levels with a small chance of a break out.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.