Higher than expected Employment Cost Index raises inflation concerns

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Published Date 4/30/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market improved by +1 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced low volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: The 1st QTR Employment Cost Index was higher than expected, up 1.2% versus estimates of 1.0%.

Housing: We got some very strong price improvements this morning with the Case Shiller metro city index showing a 7.3% YOY price gain versus estimates of 6.7% and the FHFA Housing Price Index (a much larger data set) showing a MOM gain of 1.2% versus estimates of 0.1%.

Manufacturing: The April Chicago PMI was one of the worst ever recorded, showing massive contraction with a reading of 37.9 versus estimates of 44.9.

Consumer Confidence: There was none. Consumer Confidence absolutely crumbled, falling to 97.0 versus estimates of 104.0. The prior month was revised lower from 104.7 to 103.10.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are under pressure. Volatility has started at moderate levels.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.