Mortgage applications on the rise

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Published Date 5/8/2024

Rates began the session slightly higher, the 10 year note at 4.48% +2 bps at 8:30 am ET, MBS prices -7 bps.

Weekly MBA mortgage applications improved last week, applications rose by 2.6% from the prior week in the period ending May 3rd, recovering from a 2.3% decline and stopping two consecutive weeks of declines, according to data from the MBA. Applications for mortgages to purchase a new home rose by 1.8%, while those to refinance a home jumped by 4.5%.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -15, NASDAQ -99, S&P -20. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.49% +3 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -10 bps from yesterday’s close and -11 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

This afternoon at 1 pm Treasury will sell $42B of new 10 year notes, the demand will be important. Yesterday the 3 year note auction went OK but today’s 10 year auction could move markets if investors step in and aggressively bid it, conversely if demand is weak mortgage rates could see selling with the 10-yield increasing.

There are just two more data points of substance the rest of the week, tomorrow weekly jobless claims (212K from 208K), and Friday the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index (77.0 from 77.2), year/year inflation forecast +3.2% unchanged from April. Next Tuesday and Wednesday inflation data, April PPI on Tuesday, and April CPI on Wednesday.

Yesterday’s low yield on the 10 was 4.42% where it reversed at the 40-day MA to close at 4.46% -3 bps. Any movement on the 10 year note depends on how well the $42B 10 year note auction is received.

Source: TBWS

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