Durable Goods Orders and Consumer sentiment lower than expected

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Published Date 2/27/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are getting some support today. The MBS market worsened by -26 bps yesterday. This may have been enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Manufacturing: The headline January Durable Goods Orders which is heavily weighted by aircraft orders dropped by -6.1% versus estimates of -4.5%. Ex-Transportation, they were down -0.3% versus estimates of +0.2%. Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Ex Aircraft were up 0.1% versus estimates of 0.1%. The February Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index hit -0.5 versus estimates of -4.

Housing: The YOY Case Shiller Home Price Index rose by 6.1% versus estimates of 6.0% and the MOM FHFA House Price Index rose by 0.1% versus estimates of 0.3%.

The Consumer: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence February reading bucked the recent trend and moved lower from 114.8 down to 106.7.

Treasury Auction: We round up this week's Treasury auctions with this afternoon's 7 year note.

The Fed: Today we hear from Barr.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are getting some support on the manufacturing and consumer confidence data. Volatility has started at moderate to low levels but may spike on the afternoon treasury auction.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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Vadim Bogdanov

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