Jobs openings decline but still outpace available workers

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Published Date 1/8/2019

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways so far today. The MBS market worsened by -5 bps yesterday. This wasn't enough to worsen rates. The rates experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Small Business Optimism: The December NFIB Small Business Optimism Index remains very high, coming in at 104.4 which is very close to November's reading of 104.8. Plans to increase employment rose 1 point to a net 23 percent, while a record 39 percent of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up 5 points from November.

Jobs: The November Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that there were 6.888M unfilled jobs. The market was expecting 7.063M. October was revised upward from 7.079M to 7.131M.

Trade Balance: The November release is postponed due to the partial government shutdown.

Treasury Dump: We kick off three days of dumping our debt into the market place with our shorter-term 3-year note.

Geopolitical: President Trump has announced that he will address the nation at 9 pm ET tonight to discuss the Humanitarian and National Security Crisis.

Trade War: Day 2 of the trade talks with China. Reports have the differences narrowing between the two juggernauts, but no deal yet.

Japan: Consumer Confidence Index 42.7 vs 42.9

Germany: Industrial Production -1.9% vs est of 0.3%

Eurozone: Economic Indicators 107.3 vs est of 108.2

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Low

Small business optimism and positive momentum for US-China trade talks is helping to put a bit of pressure on rates. Short of something un expected on the geopolitical front, look for rates to move sideways for the day on relatively low volatility.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

This communication (including attachments) is for information purposes only, is not an offer, solicitation, recommendation or commitment for any transaction or as a confirmation of any transaction.

Bobbie Jo Haggard, NMLS 92472;
Licensed to do business in Washington & Oregon.

Heartland Mortgage, Inc. NMLS# 3205; Office(509) 529-3280
NMLS Consumer Access website: (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org)