Big Jobs Friday


Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are getting some support today. The MBS market worsened by -25 bps yesterday. This may have been enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Its Big Jobs Friday!


Non Farm Payroll adds (NFP) for December was hotter than expected, 216K versus estimates of 170K.

November NFP was revised lower from 199K to 173K.

October NFP was revised lower from 150K to 105K.

The rolling three month average is now 164K.


The national average hourly earnings rate increased by a large margin, up 15 cents to $34.27.

MOM, the Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.4% versus estimates of 0.3%.

YOY, the Average Hourly Earnings rose by 4.1% versus estimates of 3.9%.


The Unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, estimates were fro 3.8%.

The U6 Underemployment Rate rose from 7.0% to 7.1%.

The Laborforce Participation Rate dropped from 62.8% to 62.5%.

Services: The December ISM Non Manufacturing PMI (services), which represents approximately 2/3 of our economic engine, continues to show expansion with a reading of 50.6 but it was much lower than the estimates of 52.6. The Employment Index showed dismal results at 43.3 versus November's pace of 50.7 and the Prices Paid remained elevated at 57.4.

Manufacturing: November Factory Orders were up 2.6% versus estimates of 2.1%.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets are getting some support on the morning data. Volatility has started high but will likely moderate later in the day.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of Noble Home Loans and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. The material does not represent the opinion of Noble Home Loans. All loans subject to credit approval. Rates and fees subject to change. Equal housing lender.

Noble Home Loans NMLS #328275
7830 West Sahara Ave
Las Vegas, NV

Loans made or arranged pursuant to a California Financing Law license #603J074

For more information on any loan officer or company, please see NMLS Consumer Access:

Brad Malkin


NMLS: NMLS 100539

Noble Home Loans

7830 West Sahara Ave, Las Vegas NV

Company NMLS: 328275

Office: 702-869-8790

Cell: 702-279-9111




Brad Malkin



NMLS: NMLS 100539

Cell: 702-279-9111

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